Asteroid 2012 DA14 will not impact Earth

January 11, 2013 Leave a comment

da14orbitWritten by Leslie Haze of

It seems these days any information regarding an announcement of a Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) coming remotely close to Earth spirals out of control within minutes on the internet by “doomsday prophets”. It is inevitable. What they fail to recognize or report are the facts or truth. No research is done and the doomsday prophets immediately go into internet viral mode. It is unfortunate for the doomsayers because it will only add one more failed prediction to their rapidly infinite list of crock predictions. These tiresome predictions only confirm their idiocy.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 is a moderate asteroid classified 0 (No Hazard) on the Torino scale. This means no threat to Earth. This statement of course has no bearing for conspirators. This is not enough evidence to prove to someone who is unconvinced. Here I will explain how if the asteroid made impact with Earth, it would be so miniscule it would embarrass your dog. How could I possibly know this? Simple research of facts with side by side comparisons of similar asteroids. If you claim to be a “seeker of TRUTH” keep reading or you may stop now if you are looking for more hyped up disinformation.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 is only 45 meters or 148 feet in diameter. About the size of a commercial airliner. If the asteroid made it into Earth’s atmosphere it would most likely disintegrate some kilometers above the ground in a large explosion, which if it occurred over a populated area, would cause severe personal and structural damage. What does that mean? Anything 75 meters or less in diameter would not survive intact during its passage through our atmosphere.

Hypothetically let’s say DA14 miraculously didn’t disintegrate while entering the Earth’s atmosphere or was more than 75 meters in diameter. Let’s compare DA14 with the the Barringer Crater in Arizona. The meteorite that impacted here was a rare Type M made of metallic iron and was only 50 meters in diameter. This is the measurement after most of it burned up in the atmosphere. The Barringer Crater is 1,200 m (4,000 ft) in diameter, some 170 m deep (570 ft). Since the Barringer Crater meteorite was made of metallic iron (Type M) the impact caused far more damage because it was so heavy. Still it hardly produced an Extinction Level Event (ELE). (Please note there are 3 classifications of asteroids.)

It is estimated that more than 75% of all asteroids in the solar system are carbonaceous (Type C). Type C asteroids are asteroids made of carbonates. Composition is thought to be similar to the Sun, depleted in hydrogen, helium, and other volatiles. Type C asteroids inhabit the main belt’s outer regions, where as Type M is metallic Iron. The likelihood of DA14 being a Type M is 1% and the likelihood of a Type M actually impacting Earth makes the odds even less. On top of this, the likelihood of DA14 hitting a populated area makes it slim to none. You would have a better chance of winning the lottery. To give you a better understanding it would be like comparing a bowling ball (Type M) to a volleyball (Type C). Type C asteroids are much lighter and less destructive. Since Type C asteroids are less dense, they have a greater probability of breaking up into hundreds of pieces as they enter the atmosphere. Coincidentally the asteroid that created the Barringer Crater, even being a Type M, broke up before impact as well.

If asteroid DA14 were to enter Earth’s atmosphere on Feb 15, 2013 the explosion would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT. The asteroid that created the Barringer Crater had an impact energy estimated at about 10 megatons. That is about a 1/4 of what DA14 is estimated. Let’s say our calculations are off and it makes it into Earth’s atmosphere. Based on the facts given, DA14 would probably destroy a small neighborhood if it even were to explode above a populated area which is less likely than likely. The Earth is about 75% water and only 3% of land surface is covered by populated urban areas according to GRUMP data-sets. This means there is about a 3% chance the asteroid would explode near a populated area.

Based on all the facts given, even if DA14 was miraculously made of metallic iron we can see by comparing the Barringer Crater this would be the maximum damage. (Note: the Barringer Asteroid was much larger before it entered Earth’s atmosphere.) The damage it caused was nowhere near being an Extention Level Event. Sorry to disappoint anyone.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 will also not be visible to the naked eye. Also according to NASA/JPL there is an estimated cumulative 0.033% risk (1 in 3,030) of 2012 DA14 impacting Earth sometime between 2026 and 2069. There is an estimated cumulative 0.00018% risk (1 in 556,000) of 2012 DA14 impacting Earth sometime between 2078 and 2111.

So, to sum up:

  • The asteroid will not impact Earth on February 15, 2013.
  • There is an estimated cumulative 0.00018% risk (1 in 556,000) of 2012 DA14 impacting Earth sometime between 2078 and 2111.
  • It is rated a low −5.78 on the Palermo Scale. (The risk is less than 1/500000 of the estimated risk of another similarly sized near earth asteroid hitting Earth during that time period. It is estimated that there are more than a million near-Earth asteroids smaller than 100 meters.)
  • It rates 0 (No Hazard) on the Torino scale.
  • If it were to hit Earth, it is estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT. The Tunguska event has been estimated at 3−20 megatons.
  • In 2012 there was a cumulative 0.033% risk (1 in 3,030) of 2012 DA14 impacting Earth sometime between 2026 and 2069. In 2012 it was also known that the asteroid would pass no closer to Earth’s surface than 3.2 Earth radii.

Cosmophobia – An unreasoning fear of the cosmos

January 5, 2013 Leave a comment

Now that 2012 is behind us and all of the doomsday predictions of December 21st failed, Bill Hudson (a.k.a. ‘Astrogeek’) founder of the website has created a new site for 2013 and beyond. Dealing with yet more doomsday predictions that are already in full swing on numerous conspiracy websites, fears from comet impacts to rogue planets, this is Cosmophobia.What the heck is “Cosmophobia”? You may be wondering:

Astronomer David Morrison, Senior scientist with the NASA Lunar Science Institute, coined the term ‘cosmophobia’ after answering questions at the NASA “Ask an Astrobiologist” page. He defined it as “An unreasoning fear of the cosmos”, and created a short list of items that people are worried about.

A presentation at the Astronomical Society of the Pacific’s annual meeting in Tuscon in August 2012 was titled “Doomsday 2012 and Cosmophobia: Challenges and Opportunities for Science Communication” and is available for viewing via NASA’s website.

This site grew out of the 2012hoax website, at the end of 2012. It was felt that despite the fact that 2012 had ended without the various predictions of doom and destruction the resources gathered under the 2012hoax website would still be necessary in the future. Many of the predictions made about 2012 originated well before 2012, and would continue to be claimed well after 2012.

This site will deal with various claims that invoke ‘cosmophobia’, where the fear factor is pumped up in claims in order to make something fairly mundane sound sinister and threatening. In addition to claims made about astronomy, we will also look into claims touching on other fields of science such as geology and vulcanology. We will approach all claims from a perspective of skeptical inquiry. The claimant must provide evidence that supports their claims, and extraordinary claims will require extraordinary evidence.

The Cosmophobia website:
The Cosmophobia discussion board:
The Cosmophobia Facebook Group:

And so the backpedalling begins

December 22, 2012 2 comments

An interesting post from bikenbeer2000 over at This isn’t the only place we’ve started to see this ‘backpedalling’ from the doomtards.

I’ve been making occasional visits to the forums at “The Official Website for 122112 Information” or, more correctly “The Official Website for 122112 Doom Information” but strictly as a lurker and have been noticing (not surprisingly) an increasing number of postings questioning the site, saying “we are seeing no signs”, etc.

I hadn’t had a look for a couple of days so I thought I’d go in search of some humour and see whether the comments were getting more and more annoyed and the mods getting more and more desperate. However, I was greeted with this notice:

The forum is permanently disabled. Will explain on Facebook page soon

So, a look at the Facebook page revealed:

Because of perceived threats and recent extremist events that have occurred in the United States and China, it has become necessary to disable our site forum. Current forum members are not under suspicion or in threat of investigation. I am in complete cooperation with requesting parties and cannot, and will not comment on this matter any further.

PLEASE PEOPLE… I’m begging you. Do not overreact or make any rash decisions regarding Dec 21st. Anyone who knows anything about the 2012 prophecies, including myself, does not believes that the world is going to end. This date simply marks the end of an era and the beginning of a new. This is an exciting time for our planet and we should consider ourselves blessed to be alive and able to experience a fantastic new existence.

This is right out of the Nancy Lieder Handbook, under the heading “Things going pear-shaped. Blame world events”. And they’re also now firmly into the “We never really said anything would happen” camp. All totally predictable.

The critical comments seem to be coming into the Facebook page thick and fast. No doubt that will be shut down and blamed on the government (US or Chinese?) Read it while you can.

If you want to know what they were really saying 18 months ago, the Internet Archive Wayback Machine is very useful.


December 21, 2012 9 comments

2012failSo the date of December 21st, 2012 is finally here.
The winter solstice has happened, the calendar has ended, we’re still here! No Nibiru, no asteroid or comet, no massive solar flare, no giant earthquakes and no alien invasion.
It’s safe to say, not that it wasn’t ever safe to say, that the doomtards have failed yet again. So, will this finally be the end of doomsday theories and fearmongering? I doubt it.
I think it’s a pretty sure thing that doomtards such as Marshall Masters, Nancy Lieder, Jaysen Rand, Patrick Geryl etc, and the countless armchair genius’ on YouTube will dream up more crackpot theories with no science or evidence to back them, or just push the date back for Planet X and Nibiru. I mean, why break the habbit of a lifetime?
As we’ve said before, fear sells, and people like this make a living off of it. We can only hope now that the people who were sucked in to this hoax and believed it will think a little harder next time. This may very well be our last post on the whole 2012 hoax, but you can rest assured that so long as there are idiots like this spreading their BS and fear over the internet, we won’t be far behind to debunk them. So there you have it folks, probably the biggest doomsday theory hopefully laid to rest. We’d like to take this oppertunity to thank everyone involved in this blog and thanks to everyone for all your kind messages of support over the years. Have a great Christmas and new year.
To the doomtards, Marshall Masters in particular, YOU  FAILED!

Sun “Sphere” Debunked: Not a UFO and Not Nibiru

March 14, 2012 2 comments

Telescope images captured of the sun on March 11, 2012 show what appears to be a planet-size shadowy object tethered to the sun by a dark filament. In the image sequence, a burst of brightly lit material can be seen erupting from the sun’s surface surrounding the dark object, after which the orb detaches from the sun and shoots out into space.

The footage, a composite of images captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory  and processed by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has quickly garnered attention on YouTube, where viewers are suggesting it shows a UFO spacecraft refueling by sucking up solar plasma, or at the very least, the birth of a new planet.

However, according to NASA scientists, the feature is actually a little-understood, but frequently observed, type of solar activity called a “prominence,” and the way it is situated beneath another solar feature gives it its otherworldly appearance.

The thread extending from the lower left edge of the sun in the video is known as a “prominence,” a feature containing cooler, denser plasma than the surrounding 3.5 million-degree Fahrenheit corona, said Joseph Gurman, project scientist in the Solar Physics Laboratory at NASA Goddard. It isn’t yet known exactly how prominences develop, but these dense plasma loops can extend from the sun’s surface thousands of miles into space.

“When prominences are that extended in height above the limb (edge of the sun), it’s usually a sign that they’re about to erupt, as this one did,” Gurman told Life’s Little Mysteries.

C. Alex Young, a solar astrophysicist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who runs a website called The Sun Today, explained that the prominence is situated below a tunnel-shape feature called a filament channel, (coronal prominence cavity, or polar crown cavity). “When you look at it from the edge of the sun, what you actually see is a spherical object. You’re actually looking down the tunnel. And this tunnel sits up top of the filament,” Young explained at The Sun Today. He added that the development of these structures is quite common. Alex Young’s video can be seen below.

But why is the prominence dark? Gurman explained that all the light in the SDO images is the same color — a specific wavelength that is emitted by iron atoms that have been ionized 13 times, known as Fe XIV. The dark filament seen in the images (the refueling UFO’s “tether,” according to YouTube users) is a part of the prominence that happens to absorb light of this color, making it appear dark. “The absorption is typically seen in lines such as Fe XIV only in the thinnest, densest parts of the prominence, which is here seen edge-on as it rotates over the solar limb,” he said.

In the image sequence, there is a burst of activity around the prominence, and then it and the filament channel shoot out into space immediately afterward. According to Gurman, the first event was probably an outburst of the sun’s magnetic field called a coronal mass ejection. “It’s generally accepted, though still not conclusively proven, that prominence eruptions occur when the overlying magnetic field that contains the prominence material is disrupted,” he said.

Another image showing the same coronal mass ejection and prominence eruption was captured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory on Monday. In this image, which captured light in the visible wavelength range, a bright swirl of material from the prominence trails the fainter edge of the coronal mass ejection as the two plunge into space.

Less exciting than a refueling UFO or a brand new planet, maybe — but there’s nothing quite like the truth.

You see a lot of these types of “odd-thing-near-sun” things on YouTube, based off video feed from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. That’s basically because the SDO is new (just two years old), and people are not used to the amazing displays the sun puts on. Some of which will be new to science as this the the best view we’ve ever had of the sun.

There are numerous papers describing these cavities, so I’ll just give some links, extracts and images:

We propose to define a polar crown cavity as a density depletion sitting above denser polar crown filament plasma drained down the cavity by gravity. As part of the polar crown filament, plasma at different temperatures (ranging from 50 000 K to 0.6 MK) is observed at the same location on the cavity dips and sustained by a competition between the gravity and the curvature of magnetic field lines.














Cavities are commonly observed as part of a CME, but may also exist before eruption (Sterling and Moore 2004; Gibson et al. 2006). Such quiescent cavities appear as dark, semi-circular or circular regions, often surrounding a central prominence (relatively cool and dense plasma suspended in the solar corona), and embedded in a helmet-shaped white-light streamer (Figure 1, left). They are ubiquitous: several may be visible on a given day; and can be long-lived (on the order of months): either reforming or only partly erupting in CMEs.

At the limb, the geometry of the cavity enclosure becomes
more visible because of projection against the background sky.
One typically then sees a white-light coronal streamer, often
with a hollow cavity underneath. Such cavities sometimes form
long-duration X-ray arcade events and launch coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) of the “streamer blowout” type.

Seen in the accompanying movie, forward modeling was used to predict morphology of a coronal prominence cavity. The animation shows EUV observations of a cavity from NASA’s STEREO spacecraft on the top/left, as well as the forward-modeled predicted EUV for the coronal cavity on the bottom/right. As time goes by in the movie, it’s possible to see the 3-dimensional, tunnel-like cavity rotate past.


December 4, 2011 3 comments

UPDATE: Since the Comet Elenin Doomsday conspiracies fell to pieces, quite literally, Marshall Masters of has removed all Comet Elenin material from the front page of his website. No admissions of being wrong and no apologies for creating unnecessary fear mongering. But honestly, did you really expect anything else?

Well its been a while since we posted anything, but thought it best we show how wrong the doomcryers were, yet again! We’re going to keep this short and sweet so let’s get this nonsense out of the way. First let us go back a little to May 21 of this year; we had the false prophet Harold Camping predicting the end of the world, that was cancelled until October 21, well nothing happened, we’re still here! We had comet Honda pass the Earth on August 15, it didn’t hit us, we’re still here! We had doomcryers predicting that asteroid 2005 YU55 would smash into the Earth on November 8th, it didn’t, we’re still here! But now for the biggie, how can we forget comet Elenin, or the Brown Dwarf star Nibiru as many were saying. First of all it was exactly what it was said to be, a comet, and a wimpy comet at that. Yet we had the imbecile narcissist Marshall Masters saying otherwise. Anyway back in August comet Elenin started disintegrating and was reduced to nothing more than dust, Good’ol yowusa soon jumped on that news too. Well we didn’t pass through its debris, we didn’t all get poisioned and we didn’t all turn into zombies and start eating eachother! However we cannot forget the all important date regarding this comet, October 16, when the remnant of Elenin made its closest approach to Earth. It passed by at the precise distance NASA and the astronomers studying this object said it would, 0.2338 AU (34,980,000 km; 21,730,000 mi) and now Elenin, or rather what’s left of it, is on its way back out into deep space. There was a whole bunch more of predictions we could have covered here but quite frankly it wasn’t worth it, the outcome for all is the same, they failed. We’re now in December and 2012 is around the corner, the true great year for ‘EPIC FAILNESS!’ Who knows what other crackpot theories and predictions these lunatics will dig up as we go through the year. We really cannot wait for it to arrive and have fun once again debunking them all. I wonder what the next big doomsday prediction will be when the 2012/Nibiru one falls flat on its face? How about 2020? That’s a nice even number isn’t it? Actually here’s a better idea for all the doomcryers, how about when 2012 fails and we pass into 2013, then 2014 etc, you unplug your PC from the wall, then unplug your brain from your ass and go outside and actually do something constructive and worthwhile with your lives? Nuff said.

The Truth About Comet Elenin

August 23, 2011 Leave a comment


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