Archive

Archive for June, 2010

How even media websites scaremonger with doomsday tripe

June 17, 2010 Leave a comment

This is a typical example of how even media websites are scaremongering with BS doomsday articles. Asylum.com & Asylum.co.uk have an article up on their sites, posted on June 15th, 2010 titled: End of the world in 2013 says NASA. As soon as we saw this article we wanted to check to see if they had proof, coming from Asylum this seemed highly unlikely, and whaddya know? No proof whatsoever. Nowhere in the article does it say NASA says the world will end in 2013 and you won’t find anything of the sort written by NASA anywhere else stating such a thing. The article title Asylum has used  is an out right lie. Some people will use their brains and realise the article is pish and take no notice of it, Asylum are well known for posting such things, but others will take one look at the title and spread the article around as if the statement is true. Such an example of someone not using their brain when it comes to this situation can be found here. Using solar flares as this “end of the world scenario” is also, quite frankly, laughable. Not only that but it’s old news and has been debunked numerous times. Yes CME (Coronal mass ejection) events, along with solar flares, can disrupt radio transmissions, cause power outages (blackouts), and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission lines. Solar flares strongly influence the local space weather of the Earth. They produce streams of highly energetic particles in the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere that can present radiation hazards to spacecraft and astronauts. The soft X-ray flux of X class flares increases the ionization of the upper atmosphere, which can interfere with short-wave radio communication and can increase the drag on low orbiting satellites, leading to orbital decay. It’s hardly ‘doomsday’ stuff people, but rather more of a nuisance. Without going into too much detail here, we recommend you head over to 2012hoax.org and read their article on solar flares, what they can and cannot do and what we could expect around 2013 if we were hit by a large one.

Advertisements

Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson speaks out against the 2012 hoax

June 15, 2010 Leave a comment

Neil deGrasse Tyson (born October 5, 1958) is an American astrophysicist and, since 1996, the Frederick P. Rose Director of the Hayden Planetarium at the American Museum of Natural History in Manhattan.

He is one of the most recognized figures in American science, and has popularized astronomy and astrophysics.
.
.

From the Hayden Planetarium Web page:

Neil deGrasse Tyson was born and raised in New York City where he was educated in the public schools clear through his graduation from the Bronx High School of Science. Tyson went on to earn his BA in Physics from Harvard and his PhD in Astrophysics from Columbia.

Appearance on the Jimmy Fallon show.

The U.S. television show “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” hosted Neil deGrasse Tyson, and ran him through an “Internet Personality Test”, which was a series of questions about internet usage. Question number 5 was “What’s the last link someone sent you that you wished you hadn’t clicked on?”
Tyson’s answer was:

Oh it’s all these apocalyptic 2012 links, there’s millions of them. They send it to me asking me to explain to them whether or not the world will be here December 21st, 2012, and so these are… it’s… it’s… this is rampant throughout America, meanwhile in the Far East there’s a toddler solving a Rubik’s Cube. So, this is the beginning of the end of the American civilization, that people are so distressed believing that the Earth is going to tip off of its axis and end on December 21st, 2012. Don’t get me started. The struggle continues. There’s no greater sign of the failure of the American educational system than the extent to which Americans are distracted by the possibility that the Earth might end on December 21st, 2012. It’s a profound absence of awareness of the laws of physics and how nature works. So they’re missing some science classes in their training, in high school, or in college that would empower you to understand and to judge when someone else is basically just full of it. Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

Videos with Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson on 2012.

2010 World Science Festival, June 7th, 2010.

Fora.tv recorded in November of 2009 at the Los Angeles Public Library.

NOVA scienceNOW – Ask the Expert.

Earthquakes are not a “sign of 2012”

June 14, 2010 2 comments

Many 2012’ers say that recent earthquakes are a sign of the ‘2012 prophecy’. 2012hoax.org has written a fantastic article that shows earthquakes are not becoming more frequent or intense. There is no question that there have been a lot of earthquakes recently. But, is the number of earthquakes larger than normal? Are the earthquakes getting stronger, as some people have been claiming?

USGS

According to the USGS website [1] we expect that earthquakes will occur in the following frequency:

Magnitude No. per Year Examples
8 and higher 1 Chile 2010 (8.8), Chile 1960 (9.5), Alaska 1964 (9.2)
7 – 7.9 17 Haiti 2010 (7.0)
6 – 6.9 134 Loma Prieta, CA. 1989 (6.9)
5 – 5.9 1319
4 – 4.9 13,000
3 – 3.9 130,000 Illinois 2010 (3.8)
2 – 2.9 1,300,000

In Addition, the USGS has graphs of earthquakes statistics, including deaths, dating back to 1980 on this page.

Earthquakes not on the rise.

The claim that the number and intensity of earthquakes are “on the rise” is directly disputed by the USGS. From the USGS website [2]:

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 – 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.

A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.

Chile

Chile Earthquake

Haiti

Haiti Earthquake

Illinois

Illinois Earthquake

Sumatra (2004)

Sumatra Earthquake

Conclusion

In conclusion: Earthquakes are not becoming more frequent. Earthquakes are not becoming more intense. There is 110 years of data from the United States Geological Survey which shows that there is no increase in the size or number of earthquakes. There is no reason to expect that 2012 will be anything than an ordinary year as far as earthquakes.

Footnotes

[1] Note that the number of deaths is only somewhat related to magnitude. Massive quakes occurring in developed nations with strict building codes will incur far fewer deaths than moderate quakes in undeveloped or semi-developed nations without those same building codes. For example, compare the number of deaths between the Loma Prieta quake in 1989 (Mag. 7.1, 63 deaths) to the Haiti quake in 2010 (Mag 7.0, est. 230,000 deaths)

Bibliography

Nostradamus did not make any claim about 2012

June 8, 2010 Leave a comment

From: 2012hoax.org

Overview

Michel de Nostredame (latinized as Nostradamus) was a 16th century French apothecary (a rough equivalent of a modern pharmacist). He is best known for his book Les Propheties (“The Prophecies”) (1555).

Almanacs

Following a visit to Italy, Nostredame began to move away from medicine and toward the occult. He wrote an almanac for 1550, for the first time Latinizing his name from Nostredame to Nostradamus. Encouraged by the almanac’s success, he decided to write one or more annually. In response to the almanacs the nobility and other prominent persons soon started asking for horoscopes and “psychic” advice from him. Unlike “professional astrologers” he generally expected his clients to supply the birth charts on which these would be based, rather than calculating them himself. On the occasions where he was obliged to attempt this himself, he made numerous errors.

Les Propheties

He then began his project of writing a book of one thousand mainly French quatrains, which constitute the largely undated prophecies for which he is most famous today. Feeling vulnerable to religious fanatics, however, he devised a method of obscuring his meaning by using “Virgilianized” syntax, word games and a mixture of other languages such as Greek, Italian, Latin, and Provençal. For technical reasons connected with their publication in three installments (the publisher of the third and last installment seems to have been unwilling to start it in the middle of a “Century,” or book of 100 verses), the last fifty-eight quatrains of the seventh “Century” have not survived into any extant edition.

Les Propheties received a mixed reaction when it was published. Some people thought Nostradamus was a servant of evil, a fake, or insane, while many of the elite thought his quatrains were spiritually inspired prophecies, as Nostradamus himself was indeed prone to claim.

Catherine de Médicis

Catherine de Médicis, the queen consort of King Henri II of France, was one of Nostradamus’s greatest admirers. After reading his almanacs for 1555, which hinted at unnamed threats to the royal family, she summoned him to Paris to explain them and to draw up horoscopes for her children. At the time, he feared that he would be beheaded, but by the time of his death in 1566, Catherine had made him Counselor and Physician-in-Ordinary to the King.

Problems with Predictions
Translation issues

Since the quatrains were written in Middle French, and because the original meanings were obscured by his word games, the modern English translations are so vague and replete with metaphor and allusion that you can either conclude that he makes no sense whatsoever, or that you can claim justification for any event immediately after it happens.

Errors

Nostradamus famously predicted prosperity for Henery II, King of France just two years before his death in a jousting accident. Proponents of 2012 also usually fail to identiify the quatrain in which he allegedly makes the prediction. Various different quatrains have been used by different authors, and usually these are misquoted.

Ambiguity

Nostradamus’ quatrains are ambiguous and open to wildly divergent interpretations. He does not mention December 21, 2012 directly. His quatrains are subjected to various justifications and interpretations post hoc in order to make the so-called predictions fit the actual events. In other words, proponents of Nostradamus look for matches to events in his quatrains after the events have occurred. This is a particularly noxious form of selection bias that is then used to erroneously justify claims of accuracy.

Dates beyond 2012

If we are to believe that Nostradamus predicted an apocalyptic event in 2012, then we must then ignore the fact that his quatrains extend well beyond 2012. In fact his quatrains reach out to ~3790 AD. So either the world does not end in 2012 and Nostradamus’ subsequent predictions are wrong, or Nostradamus’ predictions after 2012 are correct, and the prediction about 2012 is wrong. This dilemma is rarely discussed by proponents.

Example of a fallacious Post Hoc analysis

Here’s one of the ‘predictions’:

The great star for seven days will burn, The cloud will make two suns appear: The great mastiff will be all night howling, When the great pontiff changes his land. (Century 2, Quatrain 41)

Like all of his quatrains, this is so vaguely worded that you can, with the right spin, claim that Nostradamus predicted nearly any event! For example, the quatrain above could be easily construed as a supernova. Look! Nostradamus predicted SN1987A, the 1988 election of George Bush (The Great pontiff being Reagan), and the defeat of Michael Dukakis (the great mastiff). See how easy it is?

Almost invariably, 2012 proponents who quote Nostradamus rearrange the quatrains to suit themselves. Since the quatrains are so vague, they can be interpreted to mean anything. Examples of this abound on the internet.

Conclusion

We have shown that Nostradamus makes no prediction for an apocalyptic event in 2012, and that the quatrains of Nostradamus are so vague and ambiguous that they require extensive subjective interpretation, which allows nearly any event to be assigned to one or more of the quatrains, making them useless as “predictions”.

%d bloggers like this: